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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.